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[infowar.de] DARPA - FutureMAP Program - Policy Analysis Market (PAM) Cancelled
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-------- Original Message --------
Betreff: [INFOCON] DARPA - FutureMAP Program - Policy Analysis Market
(PAM) Cancelled
Datum: Wed, 30 Jul 2003 12:58:15 +0100
Von: "Wanja Eric Naef [IWS]" <w -
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Rückantwort: w -
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Firma: IWS
An: "Infocon" <infocon -!
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DARPA - FutureMAP Program - Policy Analysis Market (PAM) Cancelled
* About the PAM Concept
* Screenshots
* Darpa News Release
* DoD News Briefing - Mr. Di Rita and Lt. Gen. Schwartz
* PAM Images
http://www.iwar.org.uk/news-archive/tia/futuremap-program.htm
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About the PAM Concept
'Analysts often use prices from various markets as indicators of
potential events. The use of petroleum futures contract prices by
analysts of the Middle East is a classic example. The Policy Analysis
Market (PAM) refines this approach by trading futures contracts that
deal with underlying fundamentals of relevance to the Middle East.
Initially, PAM will focus on the economic, civil, and military futures
of Egypt, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey
and the impact of U.S. involvement with each.
The contracts traded on PAM will be based on objective data and
observable events. These contracts will be valuable because traders who
are registered with PAM will use their money to acquire contracts. A PAM
trader who believes that the price of a specific futures contract
under-predicts the future status of the issue on which it is based can
attempt to profit from his belief by buying the contract. The converse
holds for a trader who believes the price is an over-prediction - she
can be a seller of the contract. This price discovery process, with the
prospect of profit and at pain of loss, is at the core of a market's
predictive power.
The issues represented by PAM contracts may be interrelated; for
example, the economic health of a country may affect civil stability in
the country and the disposition of one country's military may affect the
disposition of another country's military. The trading process at the
heart of PAM allows traders to structure combinations of futures
contracts. Such combinations represent predictions about interrelated
issues that the trader has knowledge of and thus may be able to make
money on through PAM. Trading these trader-structured derivatives
results in a substantial refinement in predictive power.
The PAM trading interface presents A Market in the Future of the Middle
East. Trading on PAM is placed in the context of the region using a
trading language designed for the fields of policy, security, and risk
analysis. PAM will be active and accessible 24/7 and should prove as
engaging as it is informative. '
Screenshot of the first page
http://www.iwar.org.uk/news-archive/tia/index.JPG
Screenshot of the Home Page
http://www.iwar.org.uk/news-archive/tia/home.JPG
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News Release
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
3701 North Fairfax Drive
Arlington, VA 22203-1714
"Providing technological innovation for national security for over 40
years."
FUTUREMAP PROGRAM CANCELED
The Director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)
announced today that DARPA's participation in the Futures Markets
Applied to Prediction (FutureMAP) program has been withdrawn. The
related Small Business Innovative Research effort will be terminated for
convenience, effective immediately. FutureMAP was one of the sponsors of
the Policy Analysis Market web site that has been the subject of recent
news articles. The FutureMAP research project was meant to explore the
power of futures markets to predict and thereby prevent terrorist
attacks. Futures markets have proven themselves to be good at predicting
such things as elections results; they are often better than expert
opinions. The program was part of DARPA's overall thrust to find new
ways to thwart terrorism.
"FutureMAP was a small program that faced a number of daunting technical
and market challenges", such as Can the market survive and will people
continue to participate when U.S. authorities use it to prevent
terrorist attacks? Can futures markets be manipulated by adversaries?"
the DARPA Director said. "Reconsidering those challenges in light of the
recent concerns surrounding the program, it became clear that it simply
did not make sense to continue our participation in this effort. Our job
at DARPA is to explore new ideas and innovative research to enhance
national security. The resources that would have been applied to this
project will be applied to other more fruitful pursuits."
DARPA believes it is important to continue funding research that
examines how to better use advanced information technologies and
processes as predictive tools for terrorist acts. The U.S. will need
such advanced capabilities to solve the problems identified in the
Congressional report on the 9-11 attacks.
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Information is the currency of victory on the battlefield.
GEN Gordon Sullivan, CSA (1993)
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